Two of the insurance lines that touch the most households — personal auto and homeowners — had a notably strong 2025, according to a joint forecast from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and actuarial firm Milliman. Personal auto's net combined ratio (a core profitability measure, where lower is better) improved by 3.5 points year-over-year to 91.8, while homeowners posted a combined ratio of 88.1, its best result in more than a decade.
That's the good news for consumers: stronger insurer profitability in these lines generally means less pressure for aggressive rate hikes going forward, and auto premium growth already slowed to 4.0% in 2025, its lowest pace since 2021. The catch is that the broader property & casualty industry is forecast to see underlying growth turn negative (around -3.7%) in the first half of 2026, as insurers continue contending with catastrophe exposure and inflationary claims costs in other lines, particularly commercial auto and general liability.
Triple-I's chief economist framed the improved 2025 results as a recovery from a genuinely difficult stretch, not a sign that pricing pressure is gone entirely — replacement-cost inflation, which affects both auto repair and home rebuilding costs, is expected to accelerate again through 2028 after a few years of relative calm.
The takeaway for shoppers: auto insurance in particular may be a good line to re-shop in 2026, given slowing premium growth and improved insurer profitability — conditions that often precede more competitive pricing between carriers.